2026: The Year of the Great Rotation
Expecting a narrative shift
It’s been a while, but I’ve finally found a moment to sit down and write.
While my main portfolio is still technically in the red, perspective changes when you look at the journey: I am currently up 3x from the 2022 lows.
I’m currently managing three distinct portfolios, each with a different mission:
Portfolio A (The Core - Started 2013) This is the heavy lifter. My strategy here is macro-focused: looking 6–12 months ahead to anticipate major events and making inroads early. Unless a black swan hits, the plan remains steady. Most of my writing focuses here.
Portfolio B (The Car Fund - Started 2025) A smaller “satellite” portfolio (<5% of my initial capital). The goal? 2x to 10x growth over a 2–3 year horizon. I started this specifically to fund a car purchase, and it’s already sitting in the green.
Portfolio C (The Legacy - Started 2024) Also <5% of capital, but with a 10–20 year outlook. This is for my daughter. The rule: it must be brands/products she loves, and she has to “approve” every addition. It’s already in the green and teaches a great lesson in long-term conviction.
Looking ahead to 2026:
While the market remains fixated on AI, I believe the “surprise winner” for 2026 will be Consumerism and Advertising. The narrative is shifting from the era of "building the tech" to the era of "monetizing the user."
The “AI slowdown” narrative is gaining steam—with Steve Eisman sharing of market concerns of diminishing returns even as Blackwell hits the shelves. But the truth is, the hardware hype is peaking. The next leg isn’t about how powerful the AI is; it’s about how it’s used:
For the Public: AI isn’t a benchmark; it’s a utility. It’s better recommendations, seamless convenience, and frictionless “creation.”
For the Enterprise: AI isn’t a toy; it’s a scalpel. It’s agentic workflows driving down headcount and driving up efficiency.
As AI growth naturally cools, the “surprise” rotation will be into the sectors that actually capture the spending. Look for the shift from the chips to the clicks—Advertising and Consumerism are my top picks for the 2026 rotation.
2026: The Year of the “Great Rotation”
While industry-specific catalysts are plenty, several macro shifts are about to hit the entire economy. We are moving from a focus on “Tech Infrastructure” to a focus on liquidity, leverage, and the American consumer.
Here are the 6 pillars of the 2026 thesis:
1. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” (The Liquidity Injection)
Tax season 2026 will feel like a windfall. With no tax on overtime/part-time work and higher rebates, the individual’s wallet is getting a massive upgrade.
The Kicker: “Trump Accounts” ($1k for every child to invest) and $10k annual rebates on auto-loan interest. This isn’t just policy; it’s a forced injection into the markets and the car industry.
2. World Cup 2026 (The Tourism Surge)
From June to July, the US, Canada, and Mexico become the world’s stage. Expect a tidal wave of tourist spending and a “gold rush” for streaming and social media ad-spend. If you aren’t positioned in hospitality or digital advertising, you’re missing the easiest play of the year.
3. America’s 250th Anniversary (The Branding Super-Cycle)
4 Jul 2026, isn’t just a holiday; it’s a branding phenomenon. Between the Semiquincentennial and Memorial Day, expect a merchandising frenzy. With mid-terms looming, the “MAGA” marketing machine will be in overdrive, forcing every major brand to compete for eyeballs.
4. The Mid-Term Election (The Ad-Spend Double Whammy)
The fight for the Senate will make advertising space prohibitively expensive. This is great for the platforms but a “double whammy” for consumer brands whose margins will be squeezed by record-high customer acquisition costs (CAC).
5. Lower Rates: From Survival to Growth
Lower interest rates lift all boats, but they save the “leaky” ones. Watch for a massive rerating in:
Small Caps: Cheaper borrowing costs finally unlock valuations.
High-Leverage Plays: REITs and debt-heavy firms will see a massive relief in refinancing costs.
Financial Institutions: A resurgence in mortgage and auto-loan volume as “affordability” returns to the lexicon.
6. The Weakening Dollar (The 80/20 Rule)
Continued QE and money printing will likely soften the USD. In this environment, you want extremes.
The Strategy: Focus on US-listed companies with 80% non-US revenue (to benefit from the currency tailwind) OR companies with 80% domestic revenue (to avoid the noise).
The Trap: Avoid the “60/40” middle ground; they get caught in the crossfire of dollar depreciation without the scale to hedge it effectively.
The Roadblocks: Navigating the 2026 Turbulence
While the 6 pillars above build a strong bullish case, the path to the “Great Rotation” isn’t without friction. We are facing 3 major macro headaches that will likely trigger bouts of market-wide indecision.
The silver lining? Uncertainty is the ultimate gift for the prepared investor. When Wall Street panics and sells, we look for the entry points.
1. Government Shutdown 2.0 (30 Jan 2026)
Mark your calendars for late January. If fiscal friction persists, we’re looking at another potential shutdown.
The Reality: It’s a temporary migraine, not a chronic illness. While it disrupts government travel and federal services, it rarely alters the fundamental health of the economy.
The Punchline: It’s a “noisy” event designed to shake weak hands. Expect a dip across the board—one that has nothing to do with company fundamentals and everything to do with political theater.
2. The Powell Succession (15 May 2026)
Jerome Powell’s departure in May is the ultimate uncertainty trigger. Markets hate a leadership vacuum, especially at the Federal Reserve.
The Noise: Expect a parade of candidates auditioning for the job by promising “daily rate cuts.” It will be a whirlwind of speculative headlines and empty rhetoric.
The Strategy: The transition period will be messy as the market tries to price in a new “Fed Put.” Use the leadership jitters to add to quality positions while the talking heads debate the new Chair’s dovishness.
3. The Senate Power Struggle (The “Gridlock” Premium)
As the November Mid-Terms approach, the “Who will control the Senate?” question will reach a fever pitch.
The Sweet Spot: Historically, markets prefer a Mixed Power Shift. A Republican President paired with a Democrat-controlled Senate creates the “Gridlock Premium”—it prevents radical, market-shaking policy shifts.
The Risk: If a “Single Party Sweep” looks likely, volatility will spike as the market fears unchecked legislative changes.
The Bottom Line: Keep Your Powder Dry
Uncertainty creates an indecisive market, and an indecisive market tends to sell first and ask questions later. For the disciplined investor, these are not reasons to exit, but reasons to buy the dip.
Wall Street’s hesitation is your opportunity. The biggest gains aren’t made when the headlines are perfect—they’re made when everyone else is too afraid to hit the “buy” button. Make sure you have the cash reserves ready. When the macro noise hits its peak, that’s your cue to deploy.
2026: The Monthly Financial War Map
The following timeline breaks down the liquidity injections and the “noise” events. Use this to time your capital deployments and anticipate the market’s mood swings.
Q1: The Liquidity Cushion vs. The Shutdown
January: Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) remain elevated at $40B/month. This provides a steady floor for the banking system. Risk Alert: The Jan 30th Government Shutdown deadline. Expect a “Sell the News” event here.
February: RMPs continue at $40B/month. If the shutdown persists, this liquidity will be the only thing keeping the market afloat.
March: The final month of elevated RMPs (if it really stops). This marks the end of the “easy liquidity” phase before tax season begins.
Q2: The Changing of the Guard
April: Tax Day (15 Apr). Unlike previous years, many will see a “Beautiful” relief. With lower effective taxes on overtime and part-time work, expect the consumer to feel flush. This is the first real test of the “Monetizing the Consumer” thesis.
May: 15 May Pivot. Jerome Powell steps down as Fed Chair. Expect a “bullish vacuum” as candidates try to out-dove each other to secure the role.
Bonus Catalyst: EPL ends May 24 (Traveling to US starts), followed by Memorial Day (May 26), kicking off the summer branding and advertising cycle.
Q3: The Summer of America
June: World Cup 2026 Begins (11 Jun – 19 Jul). The “Tourism Surge” hits full force across the US, Canada, and Mexico. Hospitality and Advertising stocks should be in full swing.
July: The Double Whammy. The World Cup Final (19 Jul) meets the US 250th Anniversary (4 Jul). The Liquidity Event: July 4 also marks the launch of “Trump Accounts” ($1,000 government-funded investment accounts for every child). This is a massive, long-term psychological and financial shift toward retail investing.
Q4: The Final Rotation
August – October: A period of “Ad-Spend Inflation.” As the Mid-Term elections draw near, digital and traditional ad space will be at a premium. Consumer brands might see margin pressure, but the Ad-Platforms will be printing money.
November: Senate Mid-Term Elections (3 Nov). This is the ultimate “Volatility Peak.” Once the results are in—especially if we get the “Gridlock Premium”—expect a relief rally that carries into the end of the year.
December: The Year of the “Great Rotation” concludes. By now, the market will have shifted from AI-fixation to the reality of a consumer-driven, high-liquidity economy.
The Final Takeaway
2026 isn’t about the death of AI; it’s about the birth of a new consumer cycle. Between the RMP liquidity floor in Q1, the tax-break windfall in Q2, and the World Cup/250th branding super-cycle in Q3, the tailwinds are massive.
Tubinvesting is back and finding more time to focus on what I love: analyzing the markets and sharing my journey with you.
Starting now, I’ll try to commit to a new bi-weekly schedule, with one write up every two weeks. I’ll be pulling back the curtain on my actual holdings—detailing the “why” and “when” behind the companies in my portfolio.